hurricane

Before the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began the consensus was that it would be one of the most active seasons in history. However, a prolonged quiet period during late August and early September possibly led forecasters to question these …

This article examines the performance of 24 prediction markets for climate-related variables that have been run over the past five years. The markets had horizons of 2 to 12 months. the predictions of the markets were consistent with good reliability, given the resolving power afforded by the sample size.