This paper reports viability tests of prediction markets with highly granular, monthly UK rainfall and temperature joint outcome spaces. The experiments demonstrate these markets can aggregate the judgments of experts with relevant expertise, and suggest similarly structured markets, with longer horizons, could provide a mechanism to produce credible forecasts of climate-related risks for policy making, planning, and risk disclosure.
This article examines the performance of 24 prediction markets for climate-related variables that have been run over the past five years. The markets had horizons of 2 to 12 months. the predictions of the markets were consistent with good reliability, given the resolving power afforded by the sample size.
Normative decision theory proves inadequate for modeling human responses to the social-engineering campaigns of Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) attacks. Behavioral decision theory fares better, but still falls short of capturing social-engineering …
Forward-looking information about climate risks is critical for decision makers, but the provision and accuracy of such information is limited. Innovative prediction-market designs could provide a mechanism to enhance applied climate research in an …
The creation of a new business is an act of entrepreneurship. It is also a financial undertaking. Hence it is admissible to apply the apparatus of behavioral finance to study the determinants of business formation. Our results show that aggregate US …
We construct a sentiment indicator as the first principal component of thirteen emotion metrics derived from the lyrics and composition of music-chart singles. This indicator performs well, dominating the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and …
Investor sentiment's effect on asset prices has been studied extensively to date, without delivering consistent results across samples and datasets. We investigate the asset-pricing impacts of eight widely cited investor-sentiment indicators (one …
Many philosophers have challenged the ideal of value-free science on the grounds that social or moral values are relevant to inferential thresholds. But given this view, how precisely and to what extent should scientists adjust their inferential …
Risk-averse Expected Utility (EU) decision makers with wealth-dependent utility functions may find themselves indifferent between accepting and rejecting an indivisible risky prospect. Bell (1988) showed that under these circumstances it may be …
There is not a uniform view of the link between cyber risk and systemic risk: some assume a direct link whereas others query the connection. Beyond nation states, the vast majority of independent cyber attackers are currently unlikely to have the …